cheapski wrote:The morning GFS run pushed the storm almost to the last frame of the forecast period...not outside of the range of fluctuation so far out, but a little tenuous to bank on.UPDATED 11-6-09
YOU CAN SEE WHERE MJO WAS ON THE 5TH OF NOVEMBER.....WITH ITS PROGRESSION RACING TOWARD PHASE SPACE 3 FASTER THEN THE STATISTICAL FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER. AT THE RATE IT IS TRAVELING, IT SHOULD BE INTO PHASE SPACE 4 BETWEEN THE 8TH AND 10TH. ITS PACE HAS ACCELERATED. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO MODULATE THE MID LATITUDE WAVE PATTERN DURING THE 3RD WEEK OF NOVEMBER AT THIS PACE.
ONCE WELL INTO PHASE 4.....WE SHOULD DEFINITELY SEE GOOD SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE IN THE MODELS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WITH THE PROMISE OF A STORM. COINCIDENTALLY, THERE IS VERY GOOD CLIMO SUPPORT FOR A STORM AROUND THE 18TH OF NOVEMBER.
I HAVE NOTED THAT MJO WILL BEGIN TO MODULATE THE LONG WAVE FEATURES FAVORABLY, ONCE "WELL" INTO PHASE SPACE 4 AND 5 WITH STORMS POSSIBLE IN PHASE SPACE'S SPACE 5 AND 6 IF THE AMPLITUDE REMAINS STRONG. =>+2 DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL.
IF THE MJO GETS INTO PHASE SPACE 6 AND 7 "UNDERCUTTING OF THE WESTERLIES", YOU HAVE A EL NINO LIKE PATTERN WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF A NEGATIVE PHASE TNH TELECONNECTION PATTERN DEVELOPING FOR THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WEST COAST. THAT EFFECT MOST LIKELY OCCURS MUCH LATER IN THE WINTER DURING MODERATE TO STRONG EL NINO YEARS. ONE THING ABOUT MJO AND EL NINO...THEY DO NOT LIKE EACH OTHER. THE MJO, ONCE IT GETS OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF +ENSO...THE SIGNAL BECOMES AMORPHOUS. AGAIN IF MJO IS INTO PHASE 6 AND 7, IT MAY NOT REALLY BE THE MJO; IT MAY BE STRONG TROPICAL CONVECTION *** WITH EL NINO IN THE CENTRAL PAC.
THE DWEEBER
Like the sound of that, now it just needs to happen!
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