SoCal November Stormssss - don't open till...

[snowtrekker]

This weather may be great for the beach, but we need the wet. October's early storm almost seems like a wasted effort now; the green that came up is already turning brown. It looks like the GFS might finally have something for SoCal in the fantasy forecast.

[cheapski]

I hear you, but I think the rains (where they did fall) werent completely wasted. It helped dampen the grounds and that water is percolating into the water table. Up here in the foothills it really helped since it fell at a slower rate than forecast.

[Snowave]

75 degrees, and 5% RH at 7k ft!

even had an interior smoke pop up today from the Sheep Fire.

[cheapski]

I'm surprised the snow hasnt melted at MH yet. Or has it? Maybe they put gelatin in it like ice cream makers.

[Snowave]

What snow?

[Photoho]

I'm surprised the snow hasnt melted at MH yet. Or has it? Maybe they put gelatin in it like ice cream makers.

Mammoth does that once in a while.

[snowtrekker]

I know it's not in the official forecast yet and nothing's come of it in the past, but LOX is finally saying the r word again.

MODELS FROM THIS POINT ON DIVERGE WITH THE EC A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE
AND DEEPER THAN THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LOW NE OF HAWAII THAT MARCHES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS SOLUTION
WOULD TRANSLATE INTO CONTINUED SUNSHINE AND WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WHILE THE EC SOLUTION WOULD TRANSLATE INTO CLOUDS...COOLER...AND A
GOOD THREAT OF RAIN FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF PT. CONCEPTION. 12Z GFS ENSEMBLES ARE STILL A MIX BY FRIDAY
BUT ALL RUNS POINT TO SOMETHING OTHER THAN A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE
FORECAST AREA AND MORE LIKELY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN CA AND THE PAC NW. THIS SCENARIO WOULD MOST LIKELY KEEP THE
FORECAST AREA DRY BUT SUGGEST A LOW POP THREAT ACROSS NORTHERN SAN
LUIS OBISPO COUNTY.

[cheapski]

That aqua color is electric! @_@

Oh thank you.

[snowtrekker]

That aqua color is electric! @_@

Sorry 'bout that, it looked much darker in the color menu.

[cheapski]

Darn. The GFS is pulling back somewhat on that cutoff low that was supposed to bring in precip. The latest run has it going into Baja and dissipating.

[snowtrekker]

LOX has slight chance of showers in the text forecast toward the end of the week (though the discussion is saying amounts will be light at best).

The GFS might be cutting back on this week's event, but look at the beast in the 18Z's fantasy forecast:http://www.ggweather.com/loops/gfs_18z_sfc.shtml
There's not much moisture, but look at the cold! There also appears to be some energy undercutting the big ridge in the E.Pac.

Just noticed Cheapski posted the same thing in the Mammoth weather thread. Oh well, I'm sure it would have some effect on our weather here!

[cheapski]

Bah. Completely dry now for SoCal with not a hint of that cutoff low they were forecasting. And that big fantasy freeze also is moved off to the East.

But!

If you have not heard, it looks like it could be an active rain-year ahead as a moderate el nino is continuing to develop across the Pacific Ocean this Fall. So spotters, clean out your rain gages, and lets see how much rain and snow will fall.

Best Wishes

Curt Kaplan
nws forecaster

[liftedtacoma]

Here is Chris Manly's Socal winter outlook

--WINTER OUTLOOK; We do expect above average snowfall and average temperatures overall. Usually the really big storms move in during the later winter (after the New Year)/ spring time frame during an El Nino year and winter seems to drag on almost into June. We also expect some wider variations in temperature than we usually see, with some possibly extreme cold air masses making their way down south.

http://www.snowforecast.com

[snowtrekker]

Some graphical confirmation of what we've all been hearing:

El Nino winters seem to start off early, slow down in in mid Oct.-early Dec. (compared to normal), then really pick up into late Dec. and the rest of the season.

[FreshPow]

Bah. Completely dry now for SoCal with not a hint of that cutoff low they were forecasting. And that big fantasy freeze also is moved off to the East.

But!

If you have not heard, it looks like it could be an active rain-year ahead as a moderate el nino is continuing to develop across the Pacific Ocean this Fall. So spotters, clean out your rain gages, and lets see how much rain and snow will fall.

Best Wishes

Curt Kaplan
nws forecaster

Hey I'm a spotter too, but for the San Diego office...much quieter program there