Return of El Niño?

[Photoho]

Just get bigger shovels for your wife and kids.

[TheSnowman]

2.0...!!! Wow I better go buy a snow blower!

what you dont already own one???

I have owned 4 of them and they trash my back big time. Most people laugh at me put I use one of the snow buckets from Do it Center. No more back pain and more powder skiing.

[snowboard247]

2.0...!!! Wow I better go buy a snow blower!

what you dont already own one???

I have owned 4 of them and they trash my back big time.

I guess you need one of the self-propelled models

[TheSnowman]

2.0...!!! Wow I better go buy a snow blower!

what you dont already own one???

I have owned 4 of them and they trash my back big time.

I guess you need one of the self-propelled models

A blower like the city uses would be nice!!!

[snowboard247]

2.0...!!! Wow I better go buy a snow blower!

what you dont already own one???

I have owned 4 of them and they trash my back big time.

I guess you need one of the self-propelled models

A blower like the city uses would be nice!!!

LOL yeah that would take like 15 seconds to do your driveway with one of those.

[ride395]

It's been years since my wife lived in ML, but if you ask her what she'd do if she won the lottery, buying and operating some kind of skip loader for snow removal is right at the top of the list. And she is dead serious ... snow removal fascinates her.

[ocboarder]

someone translate the meaning of those charts please!

[snowboard247]

someone translate the meaning of those charts please!

The 2 spaghetti charts translates into the different models predicting how strong/weak el nino will be over the course of the next few months. Most seem to hint at a moderate el nino that lasts through most of winter.

The chart with the 4 graphs is the SST's (water temps) in different locations in the pacific. The higher the number (degrees Celsius) the stronger the el nino.

[ocboarder]

someone translate the meaning of those charts please!

The 2 spaghetti charts translates into the different models predicting how strong/weak el nino will be over the course of the next few months. Most seem to hint at a moderate el nino that lasts through most of winter.

The chart with the 4 graphs is the SST's (water temps) in different locations in the pacific. The higher the number (degrees Celsius) the stronger the el nino.

Great, thank you =)

[Snowave]

EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP
5 November 2009

ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory

Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean (Fig. 1 & Fig. 2). The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5oC (Fig. 2). Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5oC by the end of the month (Fig. 3). Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat content anomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean, Fig. 4) also increased during the month. In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of the equatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.

There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0oC and +1.5oC during the Northern Hemisphere winter (Fig. 5). Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0oC or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia. For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA’s National Weather Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction Center web site (El Niño/La Niña Current Conditions and Expert Discussions). Forecasts for the evolution of El Niño/La Niña are updated monthly in the Forecast Forum section of CPC's Climate Diagnostics Bulletin. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for 10 December 2009. To receive an e-mail notification when the monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.

[cheapski]

although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength

That's an upgrade from the range of "weak to moderate" earlier.

I actually saved our discussion from the summer of 2008 on my computer and just reviewed it (yay PDF archiving). SnS had posted the SST anomaly graph forecast at the time (Oct) for the La Nina and it ended up being dead on as far as SSTs. Based on this I will assume the current graph is pretty close to the mark.

[oldskier]

Thanks for the info Snowave! Still lookin' good

[noworkski]

Dweeber (http://izotz.com/dweebreport/)-

EL NINO IS EXPLODING......IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TROPICAL PACIFIC!......GOOD IDEA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN'S THAT LIVE BELOW THE BURN AREAS TO SAND-BAG UP EARLY WHILE THERE IS TIME.....FOR POTENTIALLY, A VERY WET WINTER!!


Here is the latest on the "very warm pacific." Look at the bottom illustration-

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/a ... anim.shtml

[cheapski]

GOOD IDEA FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAN'S THAT LIVE BELOW THE BURN AREAS TO SAND-BAG UP EARLY WHILE THERE IS TIME.....FOR POTENTIALLY, A VERY WET WINTER!!

We have over 1000 ready to go! Not bad for 2 hours of effort.

[oldskier]

^^ ya know, they get a lot heavier when they are wet. Were you going to leave them in the street?