April SoCal N'ssssssstuff

[2NAKLLR]

From way back in March:

drizzling enough this morning to get things wet. ideal traction out on the trails though...
will it rain a .10" or not? that is the question.

It did, HerE. There was a lot of April Fools that missed the first's all-time epic riding conditions up in the SA's. 21 miles of tacky heaven. Pure joy fresh tracks in SoCal! Comfortable and sunny at 1500' @ 0800, cold, windy and cloudy up at 5000 about noon. SoCal canyons are so lush in the Spring, with lots of water flowing in from creeks and springs. Soon it'll be cookin at 90F, dry and brown, with hundreds of those tiny flies following you around.

[philiprambo]

Great information.

[2NAKLLR]

LOX:
.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...
THE BIG LOW OVER WASHINGTON STATE BEGINS TO MOVE OUT ON FRIDAY
ALLOWING FOR SOME HGT RISES OVER THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH WEAKENING
ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WARMING UNDER SUNNY SKIES.

ALL THREE MEDIUM MDLS THEN BULGE UP A VERY LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS RIDGE IS SO LARGE THAT IT WILL SLOWLY LEFT HGTS
OVER CALIFORNIA FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS. FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A
WHILE THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WONDERFUL WITH SUNNY
SKIES AND ABOVE NORMALS TEMPS WITH JUST ENOUGH OFFSHORE FLOW TO KEEP
THE LOW CLOUDS AWAY.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE NEXT 7 WITH MAX TEMPS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH ALMOST ALL VLY TEMPS IN THE 80S.

Here comes the flies!

[cheapski]

ALL THREE MEDIUM MDLS THEN BULGE UP A VERY LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL US. THIS RIDGE IS SO LARGE THAT IT WILL SLOWLY LEFT HGTS
OVER CALIFORNIA FOR 3 CONSECUTIVE DAYS.

Uh oh. Isnt this the same sort of situation that caused that horrible long heat over the Midwest last Summer? (I think it was this last Summer?)

[lbc powda kid]

rip winter 2012 mt high is closing this sunday, and bear has at least 2 more weeks..

[Ryan]

rip winter 2012 mt high is closing this sunday, and bear has at least 2 more weeks..

There is talk of staying open until the next storm hits.

[lbc powda kid]

^ whens that gonna be.. im all for it.

[Ryan]

The end of next week apparently, though with the heat coming, I don't know.

[lbc powda kid]

thats what sucks.. it all melts so quick..

[TksHiRd]

LOX likes two chances next week...

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVER THE LONG TERM PERIOD
AS THERE SHOULD BE A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BEGINNING TUESDAY
AS A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST
AREA BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY(60%) CHANCE ...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD BEFORE ANOTHER AND POSSIBLY STRONGER
SYSTEM MOVES IN ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY(70%) CHANCE. ALTHOUGH MODEL
TO MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT...TIMING ISSUES HAVE BEEN A
CONCERN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. IT IS STILL TO EARLY TO HANG YOUR
HAT ON RAINFALL TOTALS...BUT AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND THE
NAM-WRF MODEL DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE...I WOULD ANTICIPATE A MODERATE
AMOUNT OF PRECIP TO FALL FROM MID WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY SNOW LEVELS FOR THE FIRST SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AROUND
6500 FT...THEN LOWER TO 4500 TO 5000 FT BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

[Snowave]

Looks like one last hurrah of socal weather this week before we move next Tuesday...

LA thinks 6-12" with the first storm... haven't seen any numbers for the second storm yet, but it looks cooler and maybe a tad drier.

just for old times sake, I think LA is way too low with their snow levels on storm 1, at least for the bulk of the precip.

[Snowave]

looks like both storms have been revised downward for precip...big surprise.

[TheSnowman]

In your honor it will be a bust... what are the prospects for snow at your new house?

[SurfnSnowboard]

The models seem to be bouncing aroundthe. Last night when I looked the gfs had 1"+ for SoCal then this morning it was more like 0.5" and now it's back up to over 1".

Pretty chill for mid April though.

[Snowave]

In your honor it will be a bust... what are the prospects for snow at your new house?

That sounds about right.

Our house gets about 125" on avg of snow a year I think... Here is a chart of a guy that lives on the same street as us. http://www.plainhardware.com/Pages/SnowfallRecord.html

Of course, up the road 30 min or so is Stevens Pass, which is around 600-700" so far this year I think.

Looks like LA bumped totals back up again.