SNOCal October Wx

[cheapski]

Yes! The first FRONTAL system is coming next week.





The GFS at least is getting stronger for SoCal as the time draws nearer to the event.

[Biker395]

I predict heavy rains for the weekend of October 8.

Oh, and lightning.

[cheapski]

NOW what are you doing???

[Biker395]

200 mile ride from Fresno to Bass Lake and back.

Lightning? Rain? Count on it.

~ The Lightning Rod

[SurfnSnowboard]

It's really looking bad for my buddy's planned backpack next week!

[cheapski]

^^I really hope they reschedule that. NWS Sacto is thinking of calling for a Heavy Snow Event.

I see Reno is calling for Sierra ridge gusts to 100 MPH in the areas without rain.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Yeah me too. I've warned them about it and sent them a link to the Oct storms thread with WeatherGuy's mention of snow levels around 7,000 feet. They're pretty experienced but still I wouldn't want to get caught on the trail with a 2 foot storm bearing down. It's simply not worth the risk.

[cheapski]

I just wonder what the point is. With the weather closing in half the enjoyment of the trip, the incredible vistas, is lost. Oh well.

[SurfnSnowboard]

I think it's partly just to be out on the trail and do 75 miles. For me, that's not the enjoyment of it though. I would want to take my time and really enjoy the scenery not push ahead every day knowing I had to do 15 miles. And doing 15 miles after ANY snowfall is difficult and can be VERY dangerous. Even with a GPS route finding can be difficult after it snows.

[cheapski]

I like the scenery and I especially like lolling around a pristine alpine lake in the sun for a long lunch.

[ocboarder]

Will take the rain, but no lightning on Friday night please! Don't want our game to get canceled!

[cheapski]

According to this the 558 line is over the San Gabriels so they could get snow over the 8000 ft level.

[cheapski]

SGX

EARLY NEXT WEEK THE TROUGH DRIFTS INLAND BY AN UPSTREAM TROUGH THE
IN THE FAST WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC. THE LONG RANGE PROGS
SHOW AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE PACIFIC
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A TROUGH PATTERN MORE OFTEN SEEN IN NOVEMBER
OR DECEMBER. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS FEATURE...AND BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THURSDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Are we going to have a weak Santa Ana after that trough passes through?

[cheapski]

LOX

THE FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE DAY CONCERNS THE MOISTURE COMING UP FROM
HILARY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SEEMS TO SHOW
THE HIGHER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST WITH
NOT MUCH OF A CONNECTION TO THE NORTH TOWARDS SO CAL AS DEPICTED IN
THE NAM. THE GFS SHOWS THE MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY AND BASED ON THE FLOW ALOFT THIS SEEMS LIKE A MORE REASONABLE
SOLUTION. IT ALSO HAS MUCH LESS MOISTURE AT 850 MB THAN THE NAM.
NEITHER MODEL TOO HIP ON OVERNIGHT CONVECTION TONIGHT OR FRIDAY
MORNING, THOUGH THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PVA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
TROF NEAR PT CONCEPTION. SO WHILE CHANCES FOR MORNING THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY NEAR THE COAST AREN`T ZERO, AT THIS POINT THEY SEEM TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST SO THOSE WILL LIKELY BE REMOVED WITH THE
AFTERNOON UPDATE. STILL A DECENT CHANCE OF ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AREN`T GREAT AND IF
THE GFS IS CORRECT 850 DEWPOINTS WILL STILL BE PRETTY LOW, BUT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THE INTERIOR.



THE BIG WEATHER DEAL HOWEVER OCCURS FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. A LARGE TROF APPROACHES THE CA COAST FRIDAY. HURRICANE
HILLARY`S REMNANTS BECOME ENTRAINED INTO THE SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE
TROF AND LIFT UP AND OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. 850 MB DEW POINTS
SOAR THROUGH FRIDAY AND STAY VERY MOIST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE
MDLS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WITH THIS SOUTH
FLOW...BUT THE MDLS ALWAYS PREFORM ABYSMALLY WITH MOIST SOUTH FLOW.
CONTINUED THE BROAD BRUSH MIX OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH A
CHANCE OF TSTMS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN A DECREASE IN
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY TRICKY AND LARGELY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING
AND EXTENT OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. IN GENERAL EXPECT TO SEE A
COOLING TREND TO MATCH THE SLOW LOWERING OF HGTS AND INCREASING
CLOUDS. IT MIGHT NOT FEEL THAT COOL HOWEVER AS LOW LEVEL HUMIDITIES
WILL INCREASE AND IT WILL FEEL A LITTLE MUGGY.