Swinging back to La Nina.. or is that El Nino..

[SurfnSnowboard]

Latest update from the CPC:

• A majority of the ENSO models, and all three multi-model outlooks, predict ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño-3.4 SST anomalies between -0.5C and +0.5C ) to continue into early 2012.
• However, an increasing number of models predict the onset of La Niña during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2011.

The model mean of the IRI models is ENSO neutral but the model that handled the last La Niña so well is predicting a double-dip with a value of -0.9 by winter 2012.

The CFS models, both v1 and v2, have a strong La Niña with models means of -1.5 to -1.9.

[SKIPUNK]

Ok the latest news at Tioga Pass Resort (stopped for pie today) is 40% more snow this coming winter. That's what we were told by the cashier. She said that there is a customer who predicts the weather and that's his call, she said he is usually spot on.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Anyone know what Tioga Pass got last winter? I would think it would be comparable to Mammoth but the question is the official total for Mammoth or the top?

I still am VERY suspect of anyone claiming to know what this coming winter will bring. But to say 40% more than this past year is fairly insane considering how far above normal this past season was for most, if not all, of the Sierra Nevada. Another 250 to 300 inches on top of last years totals? Not likely!

I'll go out on a limb and guess that this coming season will be about average even though there are no average seasons at Mammoth (or at least few average seasons anyway...most are below average but the big years skew the average which is why the mean is lower than the average by 5 to 10%)

[cheapski]

Ok the latest news at Tioga Pass Resort (stopped for pie today) is 40% more snow this coming winter.

An 800" winter? Only the Tahoe area snow places got 700"+ this winter in CA. We would need TWO Atmospheric River events.

[onegoodturn]

I was with SKIPUNK and heard the same thing. That makes 2 people that I've heard say 30% more and 2 people that I've heard say 40% more. Talk about a JINX....

If we get half of what we had last year I'll be happy.

[SurfnSnowboard]

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center: La Niña is back

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... anina.html


Looks like another brutal winter in the US but of course there's no way to know what it will mean for snowfall in Mammoth and across the Sierra. Let's hope that "prediction" of 1,000 comes true. Or maybe not.

[cheapski]

I think that a "1000 winter" would actually hurt Mammoth a lot economically. If you think of it there would be that many more stormy days potentially disabling operations and people's traveling. Where it would benefit would be in late Spring when the weather clears, but as we know by then many people arent willing to continue winter sports psychologically.

[SurfnSnowboard]

I agree, which is why I added the "maybe not". Too much snow is a bad thing. It means more and bigger storms, blocked roads, avalanches, damaged buildings, flooding, etc.

Another 600" winter would be nice.

What I'd really love to see is a winter that turns Owens Lake back into a real lake and adds a few feet to Mono Lake.

[SurfnSnowboard]

If these models are right we may be look at a La Niña of historic proportions, maybe another 1 degree cooler than the last one.

[cheapski]

That chart shows a median anomaly of -2 C. But this one shows an average just under neutral (yellow line)

[SurfnSnowboard]

Hey I've told ya the models aren't much use!

So it's obvious we're either headed for a strong La Niña, mild La Niña, or La Nada (or is that El Nado?). Maybe even an outside chance of El Niño based on some models.

That narrows it down haha

[cheapski]

Ah ah ah, the model ensembles arent much use this far out. Thats like holding the GFS ensembles to something precise 300 hours out. If I recall, and I can probably go back and find it in this thread, I think that yellow line was right on about Novemberish for Jan-March.

[SurfnSnowboard]

ah but the chart I posted is another set of models and the thick dashed line is the model mean for those models and there is some really obvious differences between the two sets. Time will tell which set, or model, is right.

The model that was most accurate last time from what I saw was the JPN-FRCGC (?) and it's showing a drop down to -1c.

[snowtrekker]

If you look at the legend on cheap's chart, the CFS is just one of the models used. The IRI is like a spaghetti plot of spaghetti plots. I know we've been here before...

Another important thing to note: the graph of CFS ensembles has a resolution of 1 month (i.e., the output is an average SST anomaly for a one-month period), while the IRI chart has a resolution of 3 months (showing the 3-month average SST anomaly). So the CFS chart will jump around more and show lower lows and higher highs than the IRI (and this would probably apply to all the models used).

[SurfnSnowboard]

The IRI plot that cheaps posted includes the CFS ensemble that I posted. It's the yellow line indicating a strong La Niña in January with a low of about -1.8c, which is about -1.5 lower than the IRI model mean.

As I've been saying for a while now, there are HUGE discrepancies between the models and that makes them virtually useless for anything longer than about 3 months out. Analysis of the models indicate they have no skill. But maybe they're getting better.