November Stormssss! Open, Sez Me

[Sierra Lady]

My eyes glaze over when I try to figure out all that weather geek-speak. I need three-D glasses to view all those colorful charts!

I depend on four things for my local weather information:

1) The bolded text in Cheapski's NWS copy and paste posts. (If she says not to worry about bringing chains... )
2) WeatherGuy's forecasts
3) Snowman's a.m. videocast
4) My a.m. windowcast

Not necessarily in that order!!

[snowboard247]

1) The bolded text in Cheapski's NWS copy and paste posts. (If she says not to worry about bringing chains... )
2) WeatherGuy's forecasts
3) Snowman's a.m. videocast
4) My a.m. windowcast

Not necessarily in that order!!

All very good forecasting tools, although the windowcast is probably the best for whats-going-on-right-now-weather. And weatherguy's forecast is good for gettin the pow pow. Cheaps forecast is good for whats gonna be happening a week from now!?!

[2NAKLLR]

Cheaps forecast is good for whats gonna be happening a week from now!?!

I think I see something 8 daze out.

[cheapski]

10 daze or beyond now. There's more challenge to that.

All I do is gather the real forecasts and bundle them up for your reading pleasure and incomprehension.

[onegoodturn]

incomprehension

[bikensnow102]

i dont get what colors are good and what colors are alright. i know white means theres no storm but thats bout it!!!

[cheapski]

Looking good tonight! I included the precipitation chart on the left so you can see the amounts (usually I cut it off to save space).

First is the wimp storm for this week.





Then "Howard's Breakthrough" is back on from this morning and tonight!













These would be excellent snowmakers. For snow levels under 9000 feet you want to stay within 2 red lines of the last blue line.

[snowboard247]

Looking good tonight!

These would be excellent snowmakers. For snow levels under 9000 feet you want to stay within 2 red lines of the last blue line.

4-5 straight days of storminess? Am I seeing that right? That would be amazing for November, and certainly would set up the mountain nicely for all the thanksgiving folk.

[frozen]

You're right. K - We're watchin for these storms and hoping they hit. !

[SkiSox]

Can any of you help a newbie weather geek fresh from the EC out? What would typical snow/liquid ratio be for your average Mammoth event? On the EC I used 10:1 as an avg, but I've heard that in Utah, for example, 15 or 20:1 is more appropriate due to the drier snow. While I'm sure there's variability depending on the nature of each storm (Sierra Cement from the southern stream vs. light and dry from a cold inland runner on the northern stream), is there a rule of thumb you use out here?

[WeatherGuy]

The physics are the same on the WC as they are on the EC. We use 10:1 as a starting point, then looks at the variables that affect snow ratios, mostly moisture content, wet bulb depression, and lower/middle tropospheric thermal characteristics of the storm.

Snow ratios at Mammoth can be a low as 5-6:1 (subtropical) or as high as 30-40:1 (arctic), every storm is different.

[longlivechair19]

cliff notes for me please

So dumpage in 10 days or so? nov 19ish????

[The-Dweeber]

MJO is now into phase space 3. (Western Pacific) there is some evidence in the GFS fantasy charts this morning that a pattern change is getting ready to take place, to one of storminess for the Mammoth area, the week after next weekend.
This coincides well with the MJO, timing wise.

The Dweeber

[The-Dweeber]

As most of you know by now, the GFS 00z has no "storm" during the prediction period. That ridge is cemented put, so no sierra cement predicted just yet. The GFS is not yet picking up on the Dweeber's retrogression speculation (which he paid Ed Berry to tell him about. )

Dweeber- any thoughts how the apparent "western" nature of this El Nino will lessen or increase its impact at MM (see the El Nino thread)?

I am not sure what you mean by western nature. The El Nino/ENSO is partially measured in the Nino areas of 1, 2, 3, 3.4 and 4......With the SOI tallied in the Southern Hemi between Darwin and Tahiti I believe.

Nino 1 is off the central America coast. It is the 3.4 regions that most oceanographers watch as well as climatologists. At the moment, this El Nino is in the moderate to strong category. That is certainly positive for a lot of snowfall for the central/southern sierra as well as rainfall for southern ca. However with that said, there is no guarantee that it will remain at the current strength that it is, at the time January, February and March rolls around when the pacific jet is supreme.

[SkiSox]

The physics are the same on the WC as they are on the EC. We use 10:1 as a starting point, then looks at the variables that affect snow ratios, mostly moisture content, wet bulb depression, and lower/middle tropospheric thermal characteristics of the storm.

Snow ratios at Mammoth can be a low as 5-6:1 (subtropical) or as high as 30-40:1 (arctic), every storm is different.

Great - thanks.