SoCal February wx

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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby snowtrekker » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:45 am

baldyskier wrote:Starting to look like a busted season for Baldy (barring a March Miracle, which seems to happen a lot there). I was ready to go this up AM, until the NWS hype devolved into reality. 12" isn't enough on dirt, as Baldy alluded to on their Snow Report. Is NWS always this far off? I looked at the NWS spot forecast for Baldy http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1962890625 a few days ago and it looked great. Opensnow.com: http://opensnow.com/state/CA was a little on the hype side, but not like NWS. However, Snowforecast.com http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4355-mt-baldy actually under-predicted, never buying into the hype.


The forecasts there were clearly overblown. LOX, which does the forecast for the square just to the west, was only calling for 12-18", and that was on the high edge of the amounts their discussions mentioned. Historically, I think the NWS did a decent job with this one, and the hype was mainly about the low snow levels, never feet of snow in the mountains.

With the snow as light as it probably was, the mountain would have needed 2-3' to have a reasonable powder day, I would still be cautious then. SGX's numbers for that square might have read in that ballpark, but that never seemed like a serious possibility.
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"Fishing season starts soon and the ice should be gone and the snow should recede. If it hasn’t, just go skiing." - Dave McCoy
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby Snowave » Thu Feb 21, 2013 10:07 am

One thing I have learned is to be careful with those pinpoint forecasts for mountain tops. I'm not sure what it is, but I suspect there's an issue with way the numbers gets skewed with significant elevation gain. Probably a computer programming error in the way the system interprets the input it's getting.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:00 pm

I wasn't expecting rain today in Alpine - or light drizzle anyway. Chilly damp weather and no jacket isn't a good combination.
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby 2NAKLLR » Thu Feb 21, 2013 4:33 pm

Got some in S OC too. About 0.01" but it wet the streets.
I used to be with it, then they changed what it was. Now what I'm with, isn't it, and what's it seems weird and scary to me. It'll happen to yoooouuu.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby baldyskier » Thu Feb 21, 2013 5:51 pm

Snowave wrote:One thing I have learned is to be careful with those pinpoint forecasts for mountain tops. I'm not sure what it is, but I suspect there's an issue with way the numbers gets skewed with significant elevation gain. Probably a computer programming error in the way the system interprets the input it's getting.

That makes sense, probably the algorithm they're using needs to be dialed in better for higher elevations.
Do you have some links you like for Baldy forecasts? If so, please share.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby ofset » Thu Feb 21, 2013 8:43 pm

baldyskier wrote:
Do you have some links you like for Baldy forecasts? If so, please share.


pop head out window. look north towards baldy. look for clouds. if clouds present, look for snow.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby snowtrekker » Fri Feb 22, 2013 2:35 am

baldyskier wrote:
Snowave wrote:One thing I have learned is to be careful with those pinpoint forecasts for mountain tops. I'm not sure what it is, but I suspect there's an issue with way the numbers gets skewed with significant elevation gain. Probably a computer programming error in the way the system interprets the input it's getting.

That makes sense, probably the algorithm they're using needs to be dialed in better for higher elevations.
Do you have some links you like for Baldy forecasts? If so, please share.


I usually click around and get a sample of the area. It's right on the border between two offices, so when one's bullish, you can usually check with the other to see if it's a fluke or the real thing.
“Oh, yeah, you are going to get nailed.” - Meteorologist Dawn Fishler

"Fishing season starts soon and the ice should be gone and the snow should recede. If it hasn’t, just go skiing." - Dave McCoy
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby baldyskier » Fri Feb 22, 2013 1:35 pm

ofset wrote:
baldyskier wrote:
Do you have some links you like for Baldy forecasts? If so, please share.


pop head out window. look north towards baldy. look for clouds. if clouds present, look for snow.

Good luck with that!
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:47 pm

Beautiful spring-like day today in San Diego. It was chilly but clear blue skies with views out to the snow-capped mountains in Cuyamaca and poppies blooming along the freeway and green hills everywhere you look.

I'll take it!
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby Stephen » Fri Feb 22, 2013 7:55 pm

I saw all that snow driving toward Esco today. Nice.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby snowtrekker » Sat Feb 23, 2013 7:52 pm

I spent the afternoon at Mt. Baldy for the first time this season, and was pleasantly surprised with the quality of the snow. Emile's was pretty bony up top, but the snow was nice lower down. Winds worked a lot of areas into an unpredictable and thick wind pack, but the I never had to worry too much about the old, icy base. Most surfaces were a very pleasant packed powder, particularly on Shortcut.

They've really done a number with snowmaking on the the beginner area, bonanza bowl, and Shortcut-Robin's. The beginner area looked like it had a man-made base of almost 2' in spots, and both bonanza and robin's were open across the entire width of the run with very few rocks, something I haven't seen in years. Maybe that new $5 parking fee is going to something.
“Oh, yeah, you are going to get nailed.” - Meteorologist Dawn Fishler

"Fishing season starts soon and the ice should be gone and the snow should recede. If it hasn’t, just go skiing." - Dave McCoy
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby Stephen » Sat Feb 23, 2013 9:13 pm

New? They've been trying to collect that for years. Can't if you are skiing or boarding.
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby Snowave » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:35 pm

yeah, if you got charged a general parking fee AT the ski area... let the USFS know: (626) 335-1251. They came down pretty hard on Baldy for doing that some years ago.
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Postby ShiftyRider » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:56 pm

They should try to write parking tickets that aren't really parking tickets. Oh wait, somebody else has a monopoly on that...
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Re: SoCal February wx

Postby snowtrekker » Sun Feb 24, 2013 12:57 pm

Just realized this is in the wrong thread...

I haven't seen someone out to collect parking fees before, but if their contract with the Forest Service forbids this, I'll definitely bring that up. Thanks for the info.
“Oh, yeah, you are going to get nailed.” - Meteorologist Dawn Fishler

"Fishing season starts soon and the ice should be gone and the snow should recede. If it hasn’t, just go skiing." - Dave McCoy
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