baldyskier wrote:Starting to look like a busted season for Baldy (barring a March Miracle, which seems to happen a lot there). I was ready to go this up AM, until the NWS hype devolved into reality. 12" isn't enough on dirt, as Baldy alluded to on their Snow Report. Is NWS always this far off? I looked at the NWS spot forecast for Baldy http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 1962890625 a few days ago and it looked great. Opensnow.com: http://opensnow.com/state/CA was a little on the hype side, but not like NWS. However, Snowforecast.com http://www.snowforecast.com/resorts/4355-mt-baldy actually under-predicted, never buying into the hype.
The forecasts there were clearly overblown. LOX, which does the forecast for the square just to the west, was only calling for 12-18", and that was on the high edge of the amounts their discussions mentioned. Historically, I think the NWS did a decent job with this one, and the hype was mainly about the low snow levels, never feet of snow in the mountains.
With the snow as light as it probably was, the mountain would have needed 2-3' to have a reasonable powder day, I would still be cautious then. SGX's numbers for that square might have read in that ballpark, but that never seemed like a serious possibility.