SnoCal January - Its Snowtime

[2NAKLLR]

NOUS66 KLOX 262206
FTMSOX
Message Date: Jan 26 2013 22:06:24

KSOX RADAR WILL BE DOWN UNTIL MIDDAY TUESDAY, 1/29/2013, FOR TECHS ARE UNABLE TO
GAIN ACCESS TO THE SITE. MEYERS. 1/26/2013 @ 2206 GMT

USFS closed the gates. Too much mud on Main Divide.

[snowtrekker]

Tonight's GFS has a pattern that looks eerily similar to what we've just been through coming in about 7 days. I'm sure that's the last thing the resorts want right now.

[cheapski]

Amazing. ^^

[Jbaysurfer]

Hey JBay that puts you around Goleta?...looks like SB didn't get that much.

I'm just off foothill rd in San Roque....kinda near the goleta/SB border in the foothills. We tend to get more water up here...and colder lows..and higher highs. My in laws are about 1.5 miles from here towards the ocean and it's a whole other Sunset gardening zone.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Tonight's GFS has a pattern that looks eerily similar to what we've just been through coming in about 7 days. I'm sure that's the last thing the resorts want right now.

I see that too. When I saw it last time I was skeptical but that's exactly what happened which is pretty unusual for a mid-winter storm.

I wonder if/when we'll ever get back to a normal winter storm pattern this season.

[Ryan]

The cold low needs to collide with the warm low, then make beautiful snow babies.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Interesting weather around the southland today. Check out the current radar with long streaks of precip (not sure it's hitting the ground though):



In Long Beach there was a dust storm this afternoon after winds picked up dramatically for a few hours. It went from 3 mph to gusts of 27 in about 2 hours and stayed gusty for a few hours and now it's calm again. I'm wondering if the same thing that is making the streaks on the radar was responsible for the gusty winds in LB. Winds in SD kicked up too but not as much. Inland areas didn't see nearly as much wind as the coast.

The fog satellite view shows the streaks pretty clearly you can see how it orginates up near Ridgecrest and extends down.

[cheapski]

.LONG TERM (SUN-TUE)...
ABSOLUTE PANDEMONIUM BREAKS OUT AMONG THE XTND MDLS FOR THE LONG
TERM. (ACTUALLY ITS SORT OF ODD...ALL MDLS AGREE QUITE WELL WITH THE
FCST FOR EVERYWHERE IN THE CONUS XCP FOR CA/AZ/NV AND THE EAST
PACIFIC) THE BIG SOURCE OF THE DISAGREEMENT IS IF OR IF NOT A PIECE
OF ENERGY WILL BREAK OFF FROM A GULF OF ALASKA TROF AND THEN IF IT
DOES WHERE IT WILL GO.

ON SUNDAY THE GEM AND GFS PUSH MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA
AND BRING IN CLOUDS AND RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EC HAS A SMALL RIDGE OVER THE AREA.

ON MONDAY THE GEM RETROGRADES ITS UPPER LOW WHICH MINIMIZES ITS
PRECIP CHANCES. THE GFS MOVES A POWERFUL UPPER LOW CLOSER TO THE
COAST WHICH GREATLY INCREASES THE RAINFALL WHILE THE EC MOVES AN
INSIDE SLIDER DOWN THE NV/CA BORDER AND IS DRY.

ON TUESDAY THE GEM IS THE WETTEST AS IT MOVES ITS UPPER LOW OVER THE
AREA. THE GFS DRIES OUT AS ITS UPPER LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THE
EC HAS A BIG DRY RIDGE POPPING UP FROM THE SSW.

BY WEDNESDAY THERE IS 100 PERCENT NON AGREEMENT.

THE EC HAS NOT BEEN FLIP FLOPPING WITH ITS DRY FORECAST WHEREAS THE
GFS AND GEM HAVE HAD NEXT TO NO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY SO FOR THIS
FORECAST FAVORED THE DRY EC SOLN. BUT IT WOULD BE UNWISE TO MAKE ANY
SERIOUS PLANS BASED ON THIS XTND FCST.

[snowtrekker]

Odd what they said about not trusting the GFS. The GFS seems reasonably consistent with its solution for the past day or so and only had 1 or 2 major dry runs. That, and its reasonable performance with the last system give it some credibility in my opinion. Not that I'm getting my hopes up after what we've seen this season...

[cheapski]

It sounds like they dont trust the GFS at this point because it wasnt reasonably consistent. The system of last week it pretty much was - remember how the Euro was overboard with the wet? Of course the EC was consistent...ly wrong last week so who knows. Anyway just based on the season so far I find it believable to have another system approach from the SW.

[snowtrekker]

Well, forget everything I said about some consistency. Tonight's GFS run is bone dry...

[2NAKLLR]

Anyway just based on the season so far I find it believable to have another system approach from the SW.

The unfavorable difference is, the UL last week was visible for days spinning out there E of HI. There isn't as much [any] organized spin there now.