January Stormssss

[Jbaysurfer]

Sorry Rydog, I've been dying to start one of these threads for years...hopefully it hasn't been scooped by the time I hit submit.

Here's my contribution:

[snowboard247]

December has been awesome, hopefully January continues with the stormssss!!!!

[SurfnSnowboard]

Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...

[AndDee]

The first 2 weeks are shaping up to be stormy as well at this stage!!!

[Jbaysurfer]

Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong model? I used the 384 hour run from here:
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/gfsone-ex.html

Yep, just looked, it's gone on this run...Looks like a high pressure forming on that date now. It's just way too early to make anything of it though IMHO. The remnants of the AR are still out there from run to run, so at least the moisture exists..we'll just need a little help from the jetstream....

I'm an amatuer, so feel free to shoot holes in anything I just said...

[Stephen]

Pow pow.

[CyberK]

Cotton Balls Dec - Jan

[SurfnSnowboard]

Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...

Maybe I'm looking at the wrong model? I used the 384 hour run from here:
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/gfsone-ex.html

Yep, just looked, it's gone on this run...Looks like a high pressure forming on that date now. It's just way too early to make anything of it though IMHO. The remnants of the AR are still out there from run to run, so at least the moisture exists..we'll just need a little help from the jetstream....

I'm an amatuer, so feel free to shoot holes in anything I just said...

You're looking at it right, it just seems that the models are kinda all over for the first few days of January - which isn't unusual given how far out we're talking. But that's something to look for, either consistency run-to-run or inconsistency. I start to get excited when I see a lot of consistency run-to-run on the same model and also when the same feature is showing up on other models.

Tonight's 00z is back on with a storm for the 2nd - 4th:



So there might be something to it but we'll have to wait and see.

[Jbaysurfer]

Consistency like this?


Edit....why is my graphic different then yours? I'm using this link:

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ ... lsfc5.html

[SurfnSnowboard]

I'm not sure exactly what model is being displayed on your link but it looks like it's variant of the GFS. Maybe it's just a different visualization of basically the same data?

I use my buddy's page where he's made it easy to switch between model runs:

http://wxnut.home.mindspring.com/gfs/index.htm

The 12z run has the storm on the 2nd being weaker and farther north.

[TheSnowman]

The GFS will catch on to this and go dry for the new year or sooner.

[xeren]

The GFS will catch on to this and go dry for the new year or sooner.

The PNA has been negative for a crazy long time. How unusual is this?

[oldskier]

Yeah, the GFS went dry and now it's pretty wet again for the first weekend of the year but maybe just north of Mammoth. And now a small refresher around the 9th. And now (12-28) the GFS is dead on the web and, according to the NWS, acting inconsistent. So back to the window analysis and old Indian prediction methods ; ) Good thing WG keeps us updated twice a week!

[SurfnSnowboard]

Might need to rename this thread "January ridgessssss".

Good news is that a big strong ridge often flips back into a wet pattern when it breaks down.

[Jbaysurfer]

Might need to rename this thread "January ridgessssss".

Good news is that a big strong ridge often flips back into a wet pattern when it breaks down.

Figures my first thread ever meets up with ridging. Going forward I'll probably stick to playing peanut gallery for the sake of the greater good.