January Stormssss

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January Stormssss

Postby Jbaysurfer » Tue Dec 18, 2012 3:54 pm

Sorry Rydog, I've been dying to start one of these threads for years...hopefully it hasn't been scooped by the time I hit submit.

Here's my contribution:
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Biker395 wrote:All I can say is that I view the person who founded and grew the company as a hero, and the person that bought it and tore it down as a parasite. And I say that as an avowed capitalist.
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby snowboard247 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 5:10 pm

December has been awesome, hopefully January continues with the stormssss!!!!
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Tue Dec 18, 2012 10:03 pm

Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby AndDee » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:12 am

The first 2 weeks are shaping up to be stormy as well at this stage!!!
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby Jbaysurfer » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:22 am

SurfnSnowboard wrote:Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...


Maybe I'm looking at the wrong model? I used the 384 hour run from here:
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/gfsone-ex.html

Yep, just looked, it's gone on this run...Looks like a high pressure forming on that date now. It's just way too early to make anything of it though IMHO. The remnants of the AR are still out there from run to run, so at least the moisture exists..we'll just need a little help from the jetstream....

I'm an amatuer, so feel free to shoot holes in anything I just said...
Biker395 wrote:All I can say is that I view the person who founded and grew the company as a hero, and the person that bought it and tore it down as a parasite. And I say that as an avowed capitalist.
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby Stephen » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:21 am

Pow pow.



:evil: :lol:
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby CyberK » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:24 am

Cotton Balls Dec - Jan

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Re: January Stormssss

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Wed Dec 19, 2012 11:41 pm

Jbaysurfer wrote:
SurfnSnowboard wrote:Looking at tonight's 00z GFS run I don't see that storm on Jan 3rd...


Maybe I'm looking at the wrong model? I used the 384 hour run from here:
http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/gfsone-ex.html

Yep, just looked, it's gone on this run...Looks like a high pressure forming on that date now. It's just way too early to make anything of it though IMHO. The remnants of the AR are still out there from run to run, so at least the moisture exists..we'll just need a little help from the jetstream....

I'm an amatuer, so feel free to shoot holes in anything I just said...


You're looking at it right, it just seems that the models are kinda all over for the first few days of January - which isn't unusual given how far out we're talking. But that's something to look for, either consistency run-to-run or inconsistency. I start to get excited when I see a lot of consistency run-to-run on the same model and also when the same feature is showing up on other models.

Tonight's 00z is back on with a storm for the 2nd - 4th:

Image

So there might be something to it but we'll have to wait and see.
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby Jbaysurfer » Thu Dec 20, 2012 1:50 pm

Consistency like this? :)
Image

Edit....why is my graphic different then yours? I'm using this link:

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/models/ ... lsfc5.html
Biker395 wrote:All I can say is that I view the person who founded and grew the company as a hero, and the person that bought it and tore it down as a parasite. And I say that as an avowed capitalist.
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Thu Dec 20, 2012 3:01 pm

I'm not sure exactly what model is being displayed on your link but it looks like it's variant of the GFS. Maybe it's just a different visualization of basically the same data?

I use my buddy's page where he's made it easy to switch between model runs:

http://wxnut.home.mindspring.com/gfs/index.htm

The 12z run has the storm on the 2nd being weaker and farther north.
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby TheSnowman » Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:00 pm

The GFS will catch on to this and go dry for the new year or sooner.

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Off to Never Land....
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby xeren » Fri Dec 21, 2012 4:36 pm

TheSnowman wrote:The GFS will catch on to this and go dry for the new year or sooner.

Image


The PNA has been negative for a crazy long time. How unusual is this?
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby oldskier » Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:51 pm

Yeah, the GFS went dry and now it's pretty wet again for the first weekend of the year but maybe just north of Mammoth. And now a small refresher around the 9th. And now (12-28) the GFS is dead on the web and, according to the NWS, acting inconsistent. So back to the window analysis and old Indian prediction methods ; ) Good thing WG keeps us updated twice a week!
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:13 pm

Might need to rename this thread "January ridgessssss".

Good news is that a big strong ridge often flips back into a wet pattern when it breaks down.
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: January Stormssss

Postby Jbaysurfer » Tue Jan 01, 2013 10:26 pm

SurfnSnowboard wrote:Might need to rename this thread "January ridgessssss".

Good news is that a big strong ridge often flips back into a wet pattern when it breaks down.

Figures my first thread ever meets up with ridging. Going forward I'll probably stick to playing peanut gallery for the sake of the greater good.
Biker395 wrote:All I can say is that I view the person who founded and grew the company as a hero, and the person that bought it and tore it down as a parasite. And I say that as an avowed capitalist.
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