So Cal SNOvember

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So Cal SNOvember

Postby Spirit Tree » Sun Nov 04, 2012 10:34 pm

I thought I'd take the liberty of starting one for November with a storm in the horizon; hopefully. Don't want to jinx it either...
This weather stuff is fascinating - we have no control over it, can't vote for it, can't impeach it. Thank goodness!

Discussion 8:34 PM PST on November 04, 2012
Rain and snow showers are likely with this system. While it is
very early to discuss total amounts... this will be a cold system.
The only change in the forecast for the latter part of the week is
that the 12z European model (ecmwf) came in a little shallower than the GFS or dgex.
While the latter models cool 850-mb temperatures over Fresno to -3 c
Friday...the new European model (ecmwf) only drops to 0 c Friday but further falls to
-1.5 c Saturday as more energy drops into the trough. Still expect
the snow level to fall to 3000-4000 feet by Saturday and accumulating
snow remains possible for the Grapevine and Tehachapi Pass by Friday
night.

Discussion...for extreme southwestern California including Orange...
San Diego...western Riverside and southwestern San Bernardino
counties... (Below)
The front will have little
moisture and dynamics associated with it this far south...however
the deepening marine layer and cooling should be enough for
scattered light showers by late Thursday night or Friday. Temperatures will
be running from ten to fifteen degrees below normal behind the front
on Friday and Sat.
Courage is the mastery of fear; not the absence of fear.
Mark Twain
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Mon Nov 05, 2012 12:35 am

I was just looking at the 00z GFS run and that front does look really cold for this early in the season. Definitely some good snowmaking weather if nothing else.
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Spirit Tree » Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:18 am

^^^ That's what I'm seeing as well plus some wind. First need to get through some heat... :(

LOX 330 AM PST MON NOV 5 2012
Large swaths of the County Warning Area will have 90 degree readings. Several records will fall today
with long beaches 90 degree mark a near certainty. A 100 degree
reading or two is not out of question.
Courage is the mastery of fear; not the absence of fear.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Ryan » Mon Nov 05, 2012 10:47 am

SurfnSnowboard wrote:I was just looking at the 00z GFS run and that front does look really cold for this early in the season. Definitely some good snowmaking weather if nothing else.

Yes indeed, should be a good weekend for resorts.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby SurfnSnowboard » Mon Nov 05, 2012 8:52 pm

Amazing to go from warmer than normal summer temps on Monday to cooler than normal winter temps on Friday!
It has to snow again eventually...right???
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Spirit Tree » Mon Nov 05, 2012 11:21 pm

Crazy..Highs today in the 90's; Fridays projected high 61 and Sat. @ 55...
Having hard time picturing it raining with this hot & dry air mass here.
From SGX today
However...the high of 97
at Corona and San Pasqual Valley were the highest in the area. The
morning dawned quite cool in these wind sheltered valleys where
Corona started out at 41 degrees...marking an impressive 56 degree
warmup today.
Courage is the mastery of fear; not the absence of fear.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Stephen » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:45 am

I forgot how much I dig these long thermometer days -- as long as no homes are burning. I hear these window ads on AM radio that talk about heater in the morning and A/C in the afternoon. Puh-leeze.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby 2NAKLLR » Tue Nov 06, 2012 10:58 am

Not liking the dry either. Very crusty.
That Cajon pass fire + NE flow made for a nice sunset down herE.
"They say the f'n sunsets are so f'n nice is because of all the f'n smog in the f'n air."

Not so nice if you were among those stuck on the 15 when it closed in both directions.
I used to be with it, then they changed what it was. Now what I'm with, isn't it, and what's it seems weird and scary to me. It'll happen to yoooouuu.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby cheapski » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:49 pm

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CA THU
NIGHT AND FRI...THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY SAT. WHILE THIS
TRACK WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP ACROSS THE REGION...
A COUPLE OF DECENT VORTS WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE REGION IN THE CYCLONIC WEST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BRING SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO THE REGION...MAINLY FROM LATE THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI
EVENING. THE FLOW PATTERN WOULD LIKELY BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES AND EASTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY. EXPECT RAINFALL TOTALS TO
GENERALLY AVERAGE ONE TENTH TO ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE N OF PT CONCEPTION AND IN EASTERN LOS ANGELES
COUNTY. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP RATHER SHARPLY...ESPECIALLY LATE
FRI AND FRI EVENING...POSSIBLY DOWN BELOW 4000 FEET
WHICH COULD
CAUSE SOME PROBLEMS ON INTERSTATE 5. IT WILL LIKELY BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION LATE FRI AND FRI NIGHT.


I dunno, it sounds more like a dry slider.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby 2NAKLLR » Tue Nov 06, 2012 2:03 pm

Don't say dry. I'll accept the cooler for now.
I used to be with it, then they changed what it was. Now what I'm with, isn't it, and what's it seems weird and scary to me. It'll happen to yoooouuu.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Ryan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 5:05 pm

Dry is perfect as long as it's cold.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby 0LI » Tue Nov 06, 2012 8:32 pm

Ryan wrote:Dry is perfect as long as it's cold.

no, dry is not perfect!
"Remember, if you don't do it this year, you'll be one year older when you do." - Warren Miller
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Ryan » Tue Nov 06, 2012 9:18 pm

0LI wrote:
Ryan wrote:Dry is perfect as long as it's cold.

no, dry is not perfect!

In this case it is, more snow can be made in an hour than will fall throughout this entire storm. Though, I wish it were natural...hell of a lot cheaper!
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby Stephen » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:24 pm

Ahem, plaster.
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Re: So Cal SNOvember

Postby cheapski » Tue Nov 06, 2012 11:29 pm

Its dry. I'm all itchy.
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