April SoCal N'ssssssstuff

[SurfnSnowboard]

It's looking pretty wimpy on the 00z GFS run...

[TksHiRd]

another Baja fresh...

[2NAKLLR]

I'm sorry, but Windowcast says he's not in the clear yet.

Damn straight. 4000' marine layer doesn't = "more next week".

We all know what a cut off can do.

[SkierBob]

I'm sorry, but Windowcast says he's not in the clear yet.

Damn straight. 4000' marine layer doesn't = "more next week".

We all know what a cut off can do.

Judging by the clouds at my place I'd have to say the marine layer is exactly 4k thick. Last night at 8:30 I had a 60mph marine breeze. The clouds flying down the mountain at 60++ was impressive.

It's blowing about 30mph this morning. Fog on the South side of my house and Sunny on the North side.

[Stephen]

SDX has put "heavy rain" back in the forecast at a glance for my area.

[2NAKLLR]

SDX would make more sense.

SGX 0857:

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA/NORTHERN BAJA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLING...CLOUDY
SKIES...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND GUSTY WINDS. MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING THE BRUNT OF THE
PRECIPITATION IN WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
IT IS DURING THAT PERIOD WHEN MODELS INDICATE A DECENT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT MOVES THROUGH...RESULTING IN A
GOOD CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 0.9 TO 1.2
INCHES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SO THERE
APPEARS TO BE GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WITH THIS STORM. IN
FACT...WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER TIMING OF THE ECMWF SOLUTION...THE
SYSTEM MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME
AND BRING A BAND OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE AREA AS EARLY AS LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW...LOOKS LIKE RAINFALL WILL RANGE FROM
ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH NEAR THE COAST...TO 1 TO 2
INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH UP TO ONE QUARTER INCH IN THE
DESERTS. LOCALLY GREATER AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE
THUNDERSTORMS/HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALSO...SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO 6000
TO 7000 FEET LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND SO A FEW INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. FINALLY...SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM MAY GUST TO 50 MPH MAINLY OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGE-TOPS AND ALONG DESERT SLOPES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AFTER THE LOW MOVES INLAND LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN
WESTERLY AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY.

LOX Punt from early AM:

ALL EYES STILL ON THE WEDNESDAY STORM SYSTEM THAT THE MDLS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE TO COME INTO AGREEMENT ON. ALL AGREE THAT...IN
GENERAL...A COOL UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 30N/130W WILL SWEEP INTO
SOUTHERN CA FROM THE SW WEDNESDAY. THE TROF AXIS WILL REACH THE
COAST SOMETIME WEDNESDAY EVENING. BUT WHILE THE MDLS HAVE THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN DOWN THEY ALL STRUGGLE WITH THE DETAILS. THE GFS
HOLDS OFF ON RAIN UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN BLOWS IT ALL THROUGH
IN 12 HOURS. THE NAM BRINGS SOME RAIN INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON IN A WARM FRONTAL FASHION AND THEN QUICKLY MOVES IT
THROUGH THE AREA BY DAWN THURSDAY. THE EC STARTS THE RAIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY...HAS A 12 HOUR PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THEN KEEPS RAIN GOING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE EC BUT ENDS THE RAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HARD TO
ARGUE AGAINST RAIN WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND BUMPED POPS UP TO
NEAR 100 PERCENT THERE. KEPT SLGT CHC/CHC POPS WED AND THU MORNINGS.
BUT ONLY HAVE SOME NORTH SLOPE SHOWER ACTION GOING THU AFTERNOON.
THE UNUSUAL SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW A GOOD DIFFLUENT
PATTERN ALOFT TO SET UP AHEAD OF THE LOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THIS ALONG WITH THE GOOD VORTICITY ADVECTION AT THE LOWER LEVELS
WILL ALLOW FOR A SLGT CHC OF TSTMS TO DEVELOP. CURRENT MDLS DO SHOW
THE BEST CHC OF TSTMS LOCATED SOUTH OF L.A. COUNTY...A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTH THAN YDYS SOLNS.

[2NAKLLR]

They PUNTED again!
LOX 1125:

FROM PREVIOUS [PREVIOUS] DISCUSSION

They're earning their $$$, today...

[2NAKLLR]

LOX 218PM:

THE ECMWF BRINGS PRECIPITATION INTO SW CALIFORNIA DURING THE MORNING
WHILE THE GFS AND NAM12 DELAY THE ONSET UNTIL THE AFTERNOON. THE GFS
ALSO PREFERS A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF THE LOW TOWARD THE S
CALIFORNIA/BAJA BORDER. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE
BEST RAIN CHANCES FROM 21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...AND
DURING THAT TIME MODERATE RAINFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE L.A. AND VENTURA MOUNTAINS. THE NAM12 ALSO SHOWS FAIRLY
GOOD INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...SO TSTMS
CHANCES WERE RETAINED FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. THE MODELS ALSO SHOW
DIFFERENCES IN THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE LOW CROSSES THE AREA...WITH
THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST TO MOVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD ON THURSDAY.
PREFER THE CONSENSUS APPROACH...WITH CHANCE POPS LINGERING THURSDAY
MORNING AND THEN CLEARING OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 0.25 TO
0.75 INCHES FOR THE NORTHERN CWA...HIGHEST OVER THE SBA MOUNTAINS.
EXPECT TOTALS OF 0.50 TO 1.00 INCHES OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREA...HIGHEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1.25
INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...NEAR OR ABOVE 7000 FEET.

Considering the "track" record w/ L's this season, it would seem likely that it heads for Baja.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Latest QPF is still showing 1"+ for SoCal... it went from beautiful blue skies this morning to stormy looking clouds in just a few hours.

[moser]

This looks a little south for LA. but here in SD we should have a decent night. I just hope it doesn't go to south to give us the easterly flow

[SurfnSnowboard]

I think some of the mountain areas should do well with this system. QPF is still between .5 and 1.5" and the storm looks good on the IR sat.

[2NAKLLR]

It does seem a bit too S, but it looks like something anyway. It makes me happy when OC QPF is twice SLO's. HA-ha!
I hope it's dynamical!

[snowtrekker]

Feels tropical out there. My thermometer's reading 81, even with all these clouds. Radar shows precip off Pt. Conception, so hopefully it's not too far off.

[2NAKLLR]

It's balmy.
I need a Margarita.

It's looking nice, but I want more E and less S.

[SurfnSnowboard]

Yeah it was 81 in Mission Valley an hour ago too. Definitely wasn't expecting that! Feels balmy with a nice warm breeze.