Februare-you-kidding-me, SoCal WeatherRRR.

[2NAKLLR]

X-Post

Where's the Feb. thread? Anyway did anybody else just see this over at the HPC?

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
226 PM EST THU FEB 02 2012

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 05 2012 - 12Z THU FEB 09 2012

GUIDANCE CONTINUES REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THAT
ELONGATED ENERGY NEARING THE WEST COAST TUE DAY 5 WILL
SPLIT...WITH THE STRONGER PORTION DROPPING SEWD TO SOMEWHERE OFF
THE SRN CA/BAJA COAST...AND NRN ENERGY WEAKENING WHILE PROGRESSING
THRU OR AROUND THE WRN NOAM MEAN RIDGE. THE LATEST 12Z/02 GFS
SOLUTION MAINTAINS 00Z CONTINUITY WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CA WED
DAY 6 WHILE THE CANADIAN AND UKMET LANGUISH THE SYS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. THERE IS STILL A PCPN THREAT TO CA AROUND NEXT WED
DEPENDING ON HOW CLOSE THIS SYS GETS TO THE COAST.

Picacho del Diablo, BCN is going to end up with more snowfall than the S Sierra.

[Snowave]

I will be in Mammoth next week, so it will snow in socal while I'm gone. (and of course, miss Mammoth).

[SlashTurn]

I hope this splitting system will give the mean, dirty ridge the boot!! It's effin Feb.

[snowtrekker]

18Z has a pattern eerily similar to December, but with the storms dropping along the coast and coming in further North. We'll see if it holds...

[Snowave]

it's colder than a squirrels butt in Minot, ND this morning.

ok, it's only 20.. but compared to the last month, it's cold.

[cheapski]

MODEL SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY AT MEDIUM TO LARGER
SCALES ACTUALLY INCREASES BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH THE
UPSTREAM PATTERN. THE MOST NOTABLE EXCEPTION CONCERNS MID-UPPER
LEVEL TROF ENERGY DIGGING ALONG/OFF THE US WEST COAST/MEXICO. ONE
SOLUTION CLUSTER INCLUDING THE 00 UTC ECMWF AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
ECMWF ENSEMBLES HOLD MOST ENERGY OFFSHORE WHILE A SECOND CAMP
INCLUDING THE 00/06/12 UTC GFS/GFS ENSEMBLES WORK FLOW GRADUALLY
MORE INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE INLAND MOTION LATER NEXT WEEK. THESE
TYPES OF CLOSING OFF/RIDGE UNDERCUTTING SYSTEMS TEND TO HOLD BACK
AND HPC PROGS LEAN CLOSEST TOWARD ECMWF ENSEMBLES WITH A CLOSED
LOW CENTERED JUST OFF BAJA DAY 7.

[TksHiRd]

been there, done that...

[cheapski]

Well, I'm going to wait and see on the offshore aspect. As I recall, in the first series of Socal lows this season the GFS was right bringing them more onshore.

[cheapski]

LOX ***FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION***

.LONG TERM (MONDAY-THURSDAY)...

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OVER THE EAST COAST OF RUSSIA
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND ARRIVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OPERATIONAL GFS SOLUTIONS
ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT...BUT GOOD
AGREEMENT DOES EXIST FOR THE FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE REGION AND
BRING A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND. SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND THE DESERT ON TUESDAY. POPS WERE BUMPED UP
BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY TO ALLOW FOR
POSSIBLE OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. CONFIDENCE IS
GROWING FOR AT LEAST A WET WEATHER PATTERN FOR AREAS NORTH OF
POINT CONCEPTION. A COOL AND SHOWERY PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE SYSTEM FINALLY CLEARING OUT BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

[Snowave]

heh.. Russia

[2NAKLLR]

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PST SAT FEB 4 2012
<snip>
THE AIR MASS WILL MOISTEN RAPIDLY ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO
TUESDAY AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST.
GOOD AGREEMENT EXISTS BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO
INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD THE SYSTEM ALONG THE WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN AT 850 MB
WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE SYSTEM AS OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLAYS MORE OF A
FACTOR FOR SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA. SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
ADDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST BASIN ON TUESDAY MORNING...AS SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL AND
VALLEY AREAS DUE TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT.

IF THE TIMING REMAINS CONSISTENT...THE MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO AREAS NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
ON TUESDAY MORNING...RIGHT AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE...AND
SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE SOUTH COAST BASIN IN TIME FOR THE
EVENING COMMUTE. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW FOR THE WEATHER
PATTERN TO CHANGE TO A COOL...WET...AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN
FOR TUESDAY. EARLY AND CONSERVATIVE RAINFALL ESTIMATES FOR THE
STORM SYSTEM INDICATE BETWEEN 0.25 TO 0.50 INCH OF QPF IS EXPECTED
FOR THE COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS...WITH AROUND AN INCH FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. CERTAINLY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...THESE TOTALS COULD
BE NEARLY DOUBLED IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT A FEW MORE MODEL SOLUTIONS
SHOULD PROVIDE BETTER INSIGHT INTO STRENGTH AND DURATION OF THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.

THE SYSTEM COULD ALSO BECOME CONVECTIVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS
500 MB TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR -25 DEGREES CELSIUS. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERY PATTERN COULD DEVELOP BETWEEN TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.

[Snowave]

I could go for a bagel with LOX this morning..

[Photoho]

From the time I got in my car in Mammoth this morning till I got home it was close to 80 degrees warmer.

[Photoho]

Ok, I just checked. That would be 70 degrees warmer

[theHighwayman]

that's a loooooong thermometer!