SNOCal October Wx

[cheapski]

The NEW 3 day from the HPC. Precip. for everyone!



SnS your buddies are in a heap of trubble.

[cheapski]

...WRN U.S...
VRY COMPLEX SCENARIO DVLPG TDA OVR THE WRN U.S. AS A MAJOR MIDLVL
TROF PUSHES INTO THE WRN U.S. WITH STG HGT FALLS...UPR JET SUPPORT
AND PAC MSTR. MDLS ARE SHOWG THE TROF BEGINNING TO SPLIT BY THE
END OF DAY 1 WITH SOME ENERGY DIGG INTO THE SWRN U.S....WHILE THE
NRN PORTION OF THE TROF PUSHES RAPIDLY THRU THE PAC NW.
DIFFERENCES SEEN IN THE GUID OCCURS LATE ON DAY 1 WITH THE NAM
SLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF THE SRN SPLIT AND DVLPG MORE OF A CLSD
LOW JUST OFF THE SRN CA CST. THE REST OF THE GUID REMAINS MORE
PROGRESSIVE AND IS THE PREFERRED SOLU. LATEST SATL DERIVED TPW
DATA SHOWS A DECENT PLUME OF PAC MSTR WORKING INTO THE WRN
U.S...WITH THE HIGHEST PWS AIMED INTO NWRN CA THIS MRNG. VALUES
CLOSE TO 1.25 INCHES ARE SEEN IN THE SATL ESTIMATES...WHICH IS
ARND TWO STDS ABV NRML. MDLS SHOW THE PLUME PUSHG INTO/ACRS THE
WRN U.S. AND RAPIDLY WEAKENING BY LATER TDA...SO EXPECT THE BULK
OF THE ORGANIZED MOD/HVY PCPN TO OCCUR TDA AND ALONG/W OF THE
SIERRA/CASCADES WHERE SOME ONSHORE FLOW WL ENHANCE LIFT.

[cheapski]

x post UPGRADE

[snowtrekker]

LOX has up to a foot of snow falling in the Mt. Baldy area.

Some winter-like low and mid level clouds are drifting over SB, Riverside and SD counties. Times are a changing!

[Stephen]

Looks cool out there, kinda post-stormy scattered clouds

[cheapski]

Where did Mt Baldy hide their webcam link?

[Snowave]

on the "current weather" page ... (after you go to the "mountain" link).

[cheapski]

My browser isnt displaying correctly. All I get is a NOAA logo in a window.

Oh got it now. I still only get NOAA logo in the Weather Links.

[cheapski]

SGX

SNOW LEVELS
WILL ALSO LOWER TO AROUND 8000 FEET WITH THIS SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER...EVEN COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY...BEHIND THE BRUNT OF THE MOISTURE. THEREFORE...THINK
SNOW LEVEL MAY FALL AS LOW AS 6500 FEET...WITH SOME FLURRIES
POSSIBLE AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THE LINGER SHOWERS. OVER THE
HIGHEST PEAKS...4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW FALL COULD BE POSSIBLE.

[cheapski]

LOX

ONE INTERESTING ITEM IS A NICE COLD POOL
OF AIR ALOFT ASSOC WITH THE UPPER TROF. THIS POCKET OF COLD AIR WILL
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO CREATE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS
FIRST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THEN ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS AND COASTAL SECTIONS AFTER DAWN.

[Wednesday]
THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO
HOLD TOGETHER PRETTY WELL AND HAS A GOOD BIT OF MOISTURE WITH IT.
IN ADDITION IT WILL BE PUMPED UP BY A NICE 120 KT JET WHICH WILL
HELP KEEP IT INTENSIFIED AS IT MOVES THROUGH...BUT IT MIGHT ALSO
HELP SCOOT THE FRONT THROUGH IN A HURRY. THE NEW NAM SHOWS SOME
IMPRESSIVE FOR OCTOBER SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND THIS COULD CAUSE SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT AS WELL AS THE
USUAL MOUNTAIN WAVE DRIVEN STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE ANTELOPE VLY.

[Snowave]

I'll get my camera and truck ready.. along with Merced, for late night road runs and possible pictures.

Last night sounded like a storm coming... we had gusty winds all night, which we don't get much of unless there's a storm coming....Likely due to the increasing pressure gradient.

[cheapski]

So you dont think it will poop out this time? It seems like the Real Deal.

[Snowave]

well, seems like it's been pretty consistent on the models... but as always, you have to leave room for disappointment in storm's not fulfilling expectations around these parts.

[2NAKLLR]

Historically, a split can burn us (CA) this time of year. This storm seems to cut and dried even by NWS standards. I'm not all in at all. It looks pretty, but we'll see.

[cheapski]

Looking further ahead, the GFS wants to do a remake of "When Tropical Met Cutoff"