SNOCal October Wx

[cheapski]

^^Rolling snake eyes would be very typical for LOX.

Hmmm HPC and NWS discussions seem to be falling in line with the Euro idea of having the stronger storm cutoff in the SW and linger somewhat. I wonder and hope that may prolong some precip. in this area.

[snowtrekker]

It'd be nice to get some moisture back into the vegetation before any powerful Santa Ana's kick up.

[cheapski]

Funny you said that. I was just thinking it feels Santa Anaish outside. Its a lot hotter than I thought it would be and there is a slight breeze here.

[cheapski]

Wow! I really like this trend showing up in the GFS. The 18Z run really pushes the cold air into SoCal and if it verified we could get 6000 ft snow levels and pretty decent amounts of snow. I think that cold air would also bring instability showers too.

[SurfnSnowboard]

I haven't seen anything in the news yet, but it appeared that there was smoke over the mountains in eastern SD county this afternoon. I'm not sure if there were new lightning fires or if the smoke was from a fire started yesterday. Either way it didn't look like a serious amount of smoke.

Beautiful day in SD, check out pics from the Miramar Airshow in the Daily Photo thread.

[SurfnSnowboard]

"The great fire"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44742664/ns ... _diego_ca/

Nothing major, no structures threatened so far.

[cheapski]

Its tempting to count the snowflakes before they fall on this.

[cheapski]

The jet forecast for Thurs. AM

[cheapski]

"The great fire"

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44742664/ns ... _diego_ca/

Nothing major, no structures threatened so far.

THE ONLY OTHER POINT OF
INTEREST THIS MORNING IS WITH THE SMOKE PLUME FROM THE GREAT FIRE
EAST OF JULIAN. NEAR SUNRISE...IT WAS QUITE ACTIVE...WITH A
BILLOWING PLUME AND PRONOUNCED SIGNATURE ON BOTH THE FOG IMAGERY AND
RADAR PRODUCT.

[cheapski]

LOX

THE SECOND STORM FOR WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGER
SYSTEM BY FAR. MODELS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ONE,
THOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER ON PRECIP, POSSIBLY BECAUSE IT
IS ALSO SHOWING BETTER LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, RESULTING IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE STRONG UPPER JET DRIVING THE SYSTEM AND VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WHICH
SHOULD HELP THOSE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP PER THE GFS
SOLUTION. COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL INTENSITIES WITH THE FRONT.
THE JET SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE FRONT IN FASTER AND PREFER THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS WHICH AGAIN THE 18Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH.

THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WITH STORM #2 WILL BE THE SPEED AS THE JET
WILL DRIVE IT THROUGH PRETTY FAST. MAYBE ONLY 6 HOURS OR SO OF RAIN
WITH THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND LATE IN THE DAY WED ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOLLOWED BY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DECENT
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE IN TIME TO
BRING ACCUMULATIONS MUCH BELOW THE HIGHER PEAKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LOOK ON TARGET.

I still think snow levels will be at or below 7000 ft.

[cheapski]

That secondary impulse in the last frame could give us some tshower weather I would think. Dont know what LOX is saying about the cold air being late as that GFS forecast looks good to me.

[MountainNut]

LOX

THE SECOND STORM FOR WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKING LIKE THE STRONGER
SYSTEM BY FAR. MODELS IN UNUSUALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS ONE,
THOUGH THE GFS IS CONSIDERABLY HIGHER ON PRECIP, POSSIBLY BECAUSE IT
IS ALSO SHOWING BETTER LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE, RESULTING IN BETTER OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT. CURRENT
FORECAST IS TRENDING TOWARDS THE WETTER SOLUTION MAINLY BECAUSE OF
THE STRONG UPPER JET DRIVING THE SYSTEM AND VERY GOOD DYNAMICS WHICH
SHOULD HELP THOSE LOWER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP PER THE GFS
SOLUTION. COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL INTENSITIES WITH THE FRONT.
THE JET SHOULD ALSO PUSH THE FRONT IN FASTER AND PREFER THE QUICKER
SOLUTIONS WHICH AGAIN THE 18Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE CAUGHT ON WITH.

THE ONLY LIMITING FACTOR WITH STORM #2 WILL BE THE SPEED AS THE JET
WILL DRIVE IT THROUGH PRETTY FAST. MAYBE ONLY 6 HOURS OR SO OF RAIN
WITH THE FRONT. THIS SHOULD BRING AN END TO STEADY RAIN WEDNESDAY
MORNING NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION AND LATE IN THE DAY WED ACROSS THE
SOUTH FOLLOWED BY SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE COLDER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE IS SOME DECENT
COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT IT LIKELY WON`T ARRIVE IN TIME TO
BRING ACCUMULATIONS MUCH BELOW THE HIGHER PEAKS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN
PREVIOUSLY ISSUED SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT LOOK ON TARGET.

I still think snow levels will be at or below 7000 ft.

Huh? Down to 7000' (or below) in SoCal? You're serious?

[cheapski]

Stop channeling Snowave!

[cheapski]

The LA Times had a mention that the wildfire was burning towards Julian and they had an advisory evac. out this afternoon.

[cheapski]

San Diego Special Wx Statement

TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON THE
SOUTHWEST FACING MOUNTAIN SLOPES WHILE AROUND ONE-HALF INCH OF RAIN
IS POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE RAINFALL
OCCURRING LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE COLD AIR
ALOFT...THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY ABOVE 7000 FEET IN SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES.

Funny how the cold air wont arrive in time for LA, but for SD area mountains it would.