Monsoon 2012

[2NAKLLR]

Somethings got to give. It's hot and humid and there's been some cloud tops in the distance E and S but nuthin. This sucks.

[cheapski]

It looks like another pulse of moisture is coming up from Baja in the morning per WV loop. We seem to be caught between a low in the PNW, a low down south and being on the western edge of a big high over the CONUS.

[cheapski]

LOX says no, although it acknowledges that the models could be wrong.

SGX much more optimistic:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES: ISOLATED/SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE MOUNTAINS REMAIN SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE THIS WEEK. SOUTHEAST
FLOW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW MIDLEVEL
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. PRECIPITABLE WATER ON
THE 00Z NKX SOUNDING WAS AN IMPRESSIVE 1.63" WHICH FUELED T-STORMS
OVER THE SAN JACINTO MTNS MONDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP OFF
SLIGHTLY TO 1-1.5 INCHES THROUGH THE WEEK...BUT THAT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED PULSE THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING.

All I know is it was not very comfortable last night!

[FreshPow]

I'm with SGX...it feels much more humid this AM and with all the daytime heating expected...well I hope that some activity provides some relief from the heat for some of my inland friends.

[cheapski]

I see clouds over the San Gabriels, but nothing in the way of vertical development. Satellite is showing some buildups over the deserts.

[cheapski]

Look at this from SGX:

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS WE REMAIN ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE. THE LONG RANGE PROGS SUGGEST A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVING LATE NEXT WEEK FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE STILL MANY DAYS AWAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW MOISTURE FROM ERNESTO TRACKING ACROSS MEXICO AND EMERGING
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...THEN MOVING UP THE BAJA PENINSULA INTO
THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES LATE NEXT WEEK.

Ooh that would be interesting. There would have to be a strong flow from the east to get that over here.

[TksHiRd]

^^^ want full thinking... the hills are sooooo dryyyy!!!!

[Stephen]

^^^ want full thinking... the hills are sooooo dryyyy!!!!

Word. I don't water much but I do water some, and I saw new flowers this morning on my black sage. Compare that to the black sage in dem dry hills. That's just wrong (the flowers in August part).

[snowtrekker]

Great. Bring on the rain, as long as it stays clear next Saturday afternoon into Sunday night.

[windyscotty]

Gee, we just had some sprinkles in Bishop. Big deal! What a monsoon and not even enough to wet the willy.

[cheapski]

Ugh, very uncomfortable at this late (early) hour. Just look at this huge complex in MEX set to rotate into our area tomorrow!

AM NOT READY TO PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BECAUSE OF THE IMPRESSIVE MCS OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS WAVE MOVING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...BUT IN MIGHT PRODUCE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER THE SOUTHERN
AREAS FOR SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. THERE LOOKS AS THOUGH THERE WILL BE
A BETTER SURGE OF MOISTURE FOR THE WEEKEND...

I dunno, I think SGX is wrong about that blob staying south, the way the satellite loop is showing the flow.

[TksHiRd]

it stayed south...

[cheapski]

I should have phrased that better. I meant to say, the moisture wont stay completely south and in fact it has worked itself over the border this morning. The flow is still going to swing more of it to the west so even with the flow to the NE I think we might see something out of it.

[cheapski]

I see big clouds on the Mt Wilson cam! The funny thing is there is a noticeable wind thats come up from the SE on the surface and looking at the satellite loop its pushing the marine layer out to sea.

Big cloud is over Mt Baldy.

[Spirit Tree]

At 313 PM PDT periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms continue over
the eastern San Gabriel Mountains. A rain gauge at the Big Pines
Recreation Area reported 1.37 inches of rain since 2 PM. While very
little rain has fallen so far in the Antelope Valley... isolated
flooding is possible as the heavy rain from the mountains flows down
into the valley... several miles away from the storm. Motorists
traveling through the Easter San Gabriel Mountains and Antelope
Valley... including highways 2 and 138... should be prepared for heavy
rain and or possible flooding.